LIL' BUDDY'S BLOG - The Hidden Tragedy in Today's Unemployment Statistics: UNDEREMPLOYMENT!
THE CHICAGO IL REAL ESTATE MARKET, AND OTHER THINGS CHICAGO, FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF A LITTLE WHITE DOG!
Good Morning, you dogs!
These days, my own scan each morning of the Business Pages in The Chicago Tribune and The Wall Street Journal often reveal a sliver of opportunity for hope in the Rebound of the Real Estate Market in Chicago.
But other key indicators leave me a bit distressed!
Yesterday, in The Wall Street Journal, in a story by reporter Kelly Evans, The latest Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices in 20 of the largest U.S. Cities shows a bit of price stabilization in April.
To be sure, the average indexed home price fell two months ago - the latest month for which the index has been calculated - by an average 0.6% across the U.S. - an improvement from the more marked 2.2% decline of March, 2009.
Here in Chicago, however the year-over -year Index Decline, between April, 2008 and April, 2009 was a record 18.7%. This was not by any means the worst falloff of Metro Markets Surveyed across the country. The Phoenix Metro Area suffered and Index Decline of 35.3% year over year, Las Vegas - 32.2%, and Detroit, - 25.4%.
But still-declining prices here point up the fact true recovery of the Chicago Real Estate Market may still be a ways off.
For me, as a dog, however, another statistic is far more troubling.
As reported in today's Chicago Tribune, by Reporter Jeannine Aversa, the Unemployment Rate, and, it's sister, less reviewed indicator, the Underemployment Rate - remain high, and are likely to increase over the coming months, according to many experts.
Across the U.S. in June, employers shed 467,000 paid positions - far more than the projected 363,000 monthly job losses economists were projecting for last month. That represents a 45% increase in lost jobs compared to May. It leaves the U.S. Jobless Rate, according to the Department of Labor, at 9.5% - a 26-year high!
A far more telling statistic these days, however, is what many call the "Underemployment Rate". This figure includes those who tried looking for new jobs, but have since given up their search. It also includes those who have accepted, at least temporarily, jobs beneath their level of expertise and training, or those who are working fewer hours, or are working part-time as opposed to full-time.
This Underemployment Rate has been estimated at 16.5% for the month of June - the highest such rate on record in over 15 years!
One 58-year-old former non-profit director in Florida felt forced to accept a job - any job - in order to make ends meet. She feels as if she has started a new career, at a time in her life when she should instead be planning for retirement.
Another telling, somewhat depressing unemployment statistic - the length of the time without a job. Today, 29% of the unemployed in the U.S. have been out of work six months or longer, the highest such percentage since the end of World War II.
Further, Average Weekly Earnings fell by roughly $2.00 per week in June, to $611.49. That's the lowest number in 11 months, and the first month-over-month decrease since last March.
In Washington, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke, and several other economists, predict the recession will end by late this year. It is already the longest U.S. Recession in over 60 years. In total, the U.S. Economy has lost 6.5 Million jobs since the beginning of 2008, and an estimated 15 Million Employable Individuals were out of work last month.
Taken together, you dogs, these numbers still do not paint a rosy picture for Real Estate Recovery, here in Chicago, and elsewhere. As my Human Dad, Dean's Team Chicago Leader Dean Moss, says -
"If someone on Friday thinks they might lose their jobs the following Monday, that intervening weekend will not be spent searching for a new home."
No matter the moderation in home prices according to the Case-Shiller Index, being jobless, or merely the FEAR of becoming jobless, will always have a chilling effect on potential economic turnaround.
But let's all cross our paws and hope for improvement - soon!
YOUR ACE REPORTER ON FOUR PAWS,
BUDDY HOLLY MOSS & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO
