LIL' BUDDY'S BLOG - AP STUDY: Dogs, Humans Worried About Economy Today - But Many Expect Vast Improvements by This Time Next Year!
THE CHICAGO IL REAL ESTATE MARKET, AND OTHER THINGS CHICAGO, FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF A LITTLE WHITE DOG!
Hey, you dogs!
Man, you walk around Chicago today and you wonder what some folks are thinking. Humans, with their heads hung down. Canines, walking around in tight circles in the back yard, ready to . . . well, you know!
Most everyone is a bit nervous about the economy today. The Housing Market. The Stock Market. Will I have any retirement money left in a few years?
But when you ask folks how they think things will be one year from now - their outlook somehow brightens!
According to a survey commissioned by the Associated Press and GfK released today, most of those surveyed expected the U.S. Stock Market to be rising once again in three months. Although most doubt that the housing market will rebound, or that unemployment will fall, in the short term, most say they expect lower unemployment and higher housing prices one year hence.
Says Claudette Davis, a Retiree from GA, "A few months from now, I don't see it. A year from now, it may improve. With the $700 billion to bail out all those banks, maybe things will come around. And maybe the new president will have some input."
Woof? That kind of positive outlook runs counter to many "experts" - who feel that the U.S. is presently in, or about to enter, a moderate recession!
A substantial portion of those surveyed felt the economy will improve after the upcoming Presidential Election. If Democrat Barack ("That One") Obama wins the election, 44% see an improving economy. Should the victor be Republican John ("The Other One") McCain, 34% see an improvement.
Is now a good time to buy Real Estate? 53% of respondents said, "Yes!" What about investing in the stock market, with its wild swings recently, nearly every day? Only 38% thought it was a good time to invest money in stocks.
One respondent, Anthony Venditti, a West Chester PA Attorney, has this opinion - "The stock market is obvious, it's probably not bottomed out. But it's a great time to buy a house. There's a huge inventory out there."
Roughly 75% of Active Investors - those who have tweaked their investment portfolios at least five times within the past twelve months - agreed today is a good time to buy real estate. Those earning $100,000 or more also thought it was a good time to invest in stocks; those making less than $50,000 were more afraid of the stock market.
Regarding unemployment - 38% of survey respondents thought the jobless rate would fall within 3 months, but 62% were optimistic the rate would improve within a year. On the other hand, respected economists predict a high 7.5% jobless rate, up from the current 6.1%, is a possibility before the end of 2009.
In aggregate, 53% thought the economy would improve within 90 days, 75% said improvement is one year or less away. Just under one-third of survey respondents who owned a home thought its value would be higher in three months, while 55% of them saw market price improvements in a year.
Of all respondents, 58% see a higher Dow Jones Industrial Average within the coming three months - 77% see a higher stock index by this time next year. As to their personal financial situation, roughly 50% saw improvement in the next 90 days, 67% within the next year.
Overall, black respondents were more optimistic than whites as to the short and long term positive trend in the economy as a whole, and in real estate markets locally.
Gas prices, have fallen precipitously in recent weeks, as the price of a barrel of crude oil has fallen by more than 50%. Two-thirds see lower gas prices within the next three month period. Surprisingly, however, fewer thought the price of a gallon of regular would still be in decline this time in 2009.
Regarding overall consumer prices - 30% felt prices will fall within the next three months, 40% within the coming year.
The AP-GfK Poll involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,101 randomly chosen adults and was conducted from October 16 - 20, 2008. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3%, with greater error for subgroups surveyed.
So see, you dogs - things aren't all doom and gloom. Especially if you look a bit further down the road!
See AP Writer Alan Fram's coverage today in the Chicago Tribune. Relevant video is included for you dogs who can reach the mouse pad.
YOUR ACE REPORTER ON FOUR PAWS,
BUDDY HOLLY MOSS & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO
